Judicial Reform and more Drug Violence

OVER the past few weeks, gunfights between police and drug gangs along Mexico's border with the United States have left dozens dead. At the same time, two assassination attempts against a senior official in the public prosecutor's office have been foiled—the latest on January 17th when three men with grenade launchers and assault rifles were arrested.

On taking over as Mexico's president a year ago, Felipe Calderón decided to deploy the army to combat Mexico's escalating drug violence. Originally sent in as a temporary measure, the troops are still there. Faced with a relentless drugs war, Mr Calderón is now seeking to overhaul the justice system, too. The measures are ambitious; whether they will actually work is a different matter.

The very size of recent drug seizures might be seen as a sign of failure, underlining the magnitude of the trafficking. In October officials seized 23.5 tonnes of cocaine, the largest seizure ever reported in Mexico, though only a tiny fraction of the estimated 530-710 tonnes that cross into the United States every year, according to a recent report commissioned by an American senator, Richard Lugar. Mexican gangs already control America's lucrative methamphetamine trade. They have also been expanding their custom in heroin. In 2006 Mexican heroin production leapt by 58%.

Sometimes an apparent victory can actually make matters worse—at least in the short term. Last month Mexican troops arrested Alfredo Beltrán, a big shot in the Sinaloa cartel, one of Mexico's biggest drug gangs. But this may create a power vacuum leading to even more violence. Osiel Cardenas, head of the Gulf cartel, another powerful gang, has been in jail in Houston, Texas, for a year, with little discernible effect on the flow of drugs.

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Importance: Drug problems continue to escalate in Mexico. President Calderon has delineated judicial reforms that will change the current Napoleanic system to an Anglo-American system, but many are skeptical whether this change will help correct the problem of corruption and drug violence. The recession pending in America is not going to help matters, giving the drug trade more impetus as the Mexican economy declines.

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